Societies’ evolution from the Middle Ages to the Modern Era gave way to the inventions of the teeming Industrial Era, which led to the increasing use of fossil fuels and rising carbon levels in our atmosphere. These changes began in specific regions and then spread slowly to other parts of the world — over a few centuries.

But unlike that gradual evolution, the great transition we’re experiencing now calls for systemic change everywhere and quickly. It must shift the world from relying on planet-warming fossil fuels to running on renewable energy and reaching Net Zero by 2050 — in a few decades.

Moreover, this is a structural transformation that requires nothing less than a full switch to operating with low-to-no emission systems, removing excess legacy emissions, building with low-embodied carbon materials, and, per the COP28 agreement, transitioning in a just, orderly, and equitable way for all people.

This unprecedented challenge has become too difficult for a full switch to come easily but too big to ignore. We can’t expect to see a big decrease in our atmosphere’s carbon accumulation until we can see a big increase in our adoption of renewable energy, carbon removal, enabling policies, and more.

Our rate of accumulation and adoption need to become synchronized.

Some of you may be familiar with the Keeling Curve, which plots carbon emissions accumulating in our atmosphere over time. Others may have likely seen the Rogers Curve, which portrays the behavioral adoption stages of innovation over time. Bringing these two measures together makes it easier to see the troublesome relationship between humanity’s low tolerance for change and our slow response to the climate crisis. In tandem, they indicate how our rate of adoption — influenced by technological, environmental, behavioral, and policy factors — plays a huge role in the rate of our carbon accumulation.

Keeling Curve / accumulation

The Keeling Curve maps CO₂ concentrations in our atmosphere; the daily average is available here. After the Industrial Era began in the mid-18^th century, CO₂ concentration levels remained fairly stable. But by the mid-20^th century, the accumulation spiked, resulting in global warming. More than a timestamp that illustrates the rapid rise of CO₂, this graph portrays humanity living in or out of balance with nature over time.

Rogers Curve / adoption

The Rogers Curve is a behavioral model that illustrates how people respond to innovative products and services over time, in distinct stages. For example, renewable energy must attain an acceptable mix of performance, design, price, and availability before a majority will choose it to replace fossil fuels.

While some renewable energy solutions have already passed the innovators’ adoption stage, they remain far from the early majority globally. The Rogers Curve provides a simple way to compare where we are now and how far we must go to reach Net Zero and reverse the accumulation curve.

Combining Keeling’s and Roger’s curves provides insight into the unprecedented synergy needed to reverse climate change. We’ve lived past 50 Earth Days and slow-walked our way through climate change in that time. Today, we need more moonshots and participants compelled to make the great transition happen faster.

Looking at these measures together helps us confront our readiness for change.
They reflect who we are, what we have done, and what we have yet to do.

With you, we can do a lot more.

Lew Epstein

Founder / CEO

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How To Participate

All the listings below are available on Lot₂₁, and we invite you to use them freely.

We celebrate the climate champions and sustainability specialists helping decarbonize the world.
To advance climate action, we need more generalists (professionals & students) from across the design disciplines to join forces, gain scale, and collectively move faster.

First, we suggest considering where you are on your climate journey to find a good starting place to learn without becoming overwhelmed. The Carbon Almanac Network’s The Daily Difference offers an easy, conversational way to begin. Bloomberg Green offers a more business-oriented yet accessible starting place. Both suggestions are free.

We highly recommend the Impact Reporting webinar offered by mebl on June 6^th, 2024.
It’s the 2nd of a 2-part recorded series you can easily implement, no matter the size of your organization.

If you’re interested in joining an advocacy group or just testing the waters, explore your state’s resources listed in our national policy directory here.

Consider the following frameworks for a deeper dive into learning and potential actions.

— Climate Framework, unites industry & academia in an effort to upskill our collective capacity for climate action
— Doughnut Economics Action Lab, turns the ideas behind Doughnut Economics into transformative action
— Project Drawdown Roadmap, identifies science-based solutions to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
— Project Regeneration Frameworks, describe critical actions that can stem the climate crisis in one generation
— Systems Change Lab, spurs action at the pace and scale needed to tackle some of the world’s greatest challenges

You can also participate by sharing materials, tools, or projects using Lot₂₁’s online easy-entry forms. This is a great way to help other community members advance climate action faster. If you have other suggestions for how our community can participate, please email us at info@lot21.org. We always appreciate hearing from you!